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 06-18-2024, 08:28 AM | #31 |
Johnny V Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 659 | Quote: Originally Posted by Inner Dirt I only looked at a couple of today's as it is 1:12 A.M. games, can someone explain how the Yankees are -152/+128 against the Orioles? I haven't delved into bullpens yet. Baltimore has huge starting pitcher edge, hitting looks pretty even, last 10 Baltimore is 8-2, Yankees 5-5. Season series is 3-1 Baltimore with the Yankees never scoring more than 2 runs. The line looks like it should be flipped the other direction. I am with you on this one. I have BAL at +104 on my line. So basically it is a toss up although NYY deserves to be a slight favorite. BAL was at +130 last I looked. Overlay. So if you like those odds then a play would be: Listed pitcher. BAL win. Now to say that line should be flipped would not be correct IMO. It has been my experience that when my line is WAY OFF from the actual line then I don't have this huge betting opportunity. Their line is most likely right. I have probably made an error or there is some factor that I am not aware of yet. |
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| 06-18-2024, 12:50 PM | #32 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | I am done with FanDuel, they are increasingly making it more difficult to use your bonus bets. They got me on the last one, it said personal bank account only and I funded with the debit card I use for the personal bank account. Bonus bet disallowed, do not pass go, do not get $200 bonus bet. They seem to keep raising the criteria to use the bonus bet, obviously hoping you miss a step. Anyone have any recommendations? I know the options are dwindling. |
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| 06-18-2024, 12:51 PM | #33 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Quote: Originally Posted by Johnny V I am with you on this one. I have BAL at +104 on my line. So basically it is a toss up although NYY deserves to be a slight favorite. BAL was at +130 last I looked. Overlay. So if you like those odds then a play would be: Listed pitcher. BAL win. Now to say that line should be flipped would not be correct IMO. It has been my experience that when my line is WAY OFF from the actual line then I don't have this huge betting opportunity. Their line is most likely right. I have probably made an error or there is some factor that I am not aware of yet. Do the lines you make up account for the house cut or are they as if there was no take? |
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| 06-18-2024, 01:04 PM | #34 |
Johnny V Registered User Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 659 | Quote: Originally Posted by Inner Dirt Do the lines you make up account for the house cut or are they as if there was no take? The line I make is a no vig line. |
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| 06-18-2024, 04:48 PM | #35 |
CheckMark Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: Fergus,ON Posts: 3,775 | Quote: Originally Posted by thaskalos I have been betting baseball for the last two years and I think it's the best investment anyone can make. The only thing is that you have to be a "good loser" because the game results often defy belief. You have to keep your cool and play for the long term, because if you lose your composure and start chasing your losses, the length of the baseball season is sure to destroy you. I use 3 websites to get my stats, statfox.com, fangraphs.com, and baseball-reference.com. I recently found out that statfox.com is owned by the Daily Racing Form ( If you want to talk baseball handicapping, post your baseball odds line here and I will post mine...and we can compare notes. That sucks that StatFox is being closed down at the end of the month I used to use their FoxSheets for baseball all the time and have done decent using them along with the websites such as BallparkPal, FanGraphs, BaseballReference and some other websites that probably no one hears about. Now I only use Ballpark Pal, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. All which I’d highly recommend! And you are 100% correct about having a good mindset to betting baseball. Your are going to lose games and you can’t chase your loses or you will get deeper into the hole. If your losing, go back and see what your winning bets had for trends and how you bet them. I bet that if anyone puts the hard work into anything they will achieve success. Doesn’t just go for baseball, but I would say that baseball is the most gruelling sport out there after college basketball then pro football in that order for me in terms of the season and as well as the hard work it takes to figure out games each day. __________________ Last edited by CheckMark; 06-18-2024 at 04:49 PM. |
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) and is being closed down at the end of this month. A new site called StatSharp.com will open and will offer "advanced game insights and analytics". 
| 06-19-2024, 06:47 PM | #36 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | My slowly evolving MLB handicapping likes Boston +120 at Toronto. They qualify at minimum criteria. So far I am just looking at starting pitching, hitting and recency. Recency I just do a quick milling over their last 10 games. Each of 3 categories I give 0, 1/2, 1 point. Minimum to bet I am going with a 1.5 point edge. I will post a couple more before the games start. I started too late to get them all in one post. I going to look into Draft Kings, only betting on paper today. |
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| 06-19-2024, 07:01 PM | #37 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Quote: Originally Posted by CheckMark That sucks that StatFox is being closed down at the end of the month I used to use their FoxSheets for baseball all the time and have done decent using them along with the websites such as BallparkPal, FanGraphs, BaseballReference and some other websites that probably no one hears about. Now I only use Ballpark Pal, Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. All which Id highly recommend! And you are 100% correct about having a good mindset to betting baseball. Your are going to lose games and you cant chase your loses or you will get deeper into the hole. If your losing, go back and see what your winning bets had for trends and how you bet them. I bet that if anyone puts the hard work into anything they will achieve success. Doesnt just go for baseball, but I would say that baseball is the most gruelling sport out there after college basketball then pro football in that order for me in terms of the season and as well as the hard work it takes to figure out games each day. I use Baseball, Basketball, Football Reference. I swear I can get lost in those places hours at a time when not even handicapping. I take trips far back into memory lane seeing if players were as good as I remember them to be. I was a sports fan back when most kids were watching cartoons. I remember Koufax pitching on the old B&W TV on the stand with the rabbit ears and he retired when I was 5. I actually used to be a strong supporter of the local minor league teams. I am sure no one other than me has heard of the San Bernardino Spirit. They were Class A, and had a center fielder named Ken Griffey Jr. I think he was there all of a week or two. He was a major hot dog. He would actually take a late start after a fly ball on purpose and then run it down. He would goof around while batting, laying the bat on his shoulder, hitting out of awkward stances, etc. You could tell he wasn't going to be in A ball very long, I can't believe they started him that low, even though he was only 19. I think that team is still in existence |
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| 06-19-2024, 07:39 PM | #38 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Twins -168 over Tampa Bay. I wish editing time was more than 15 minutes. Last edited by Inner Dirt; 06-19-2024 at 07:54 PM. |
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| 06-19-2024, 08:31 PM | #39 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Lastly Kansas City -180 over Oakland. 5 picks for today. Boston over Toronto On paper only, time to check out betting sites to move my tack to. |
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| 06-20-2024, 02:48 PM | #40 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | 1-4, what an embarrassment. The worst day I have had since I started and I posted my picks. Also my 4 teams I parlayed for win totals went 1-3. |
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| 06-20-2024, 02:51 PM | #41 |
Saratoga Registered User Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 834 | Quote: Originally Posted by Inner Dirt 1-4, what an embarrassment. The worst day I have had since I started and I posted my picks. Also my 4 teams I parlayed for win totals went 1-3. Doesn't it always happen like that when you posts stuff... Give it another go and do 4-0 |
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| 06-21-2024, 10:10 AM | #42 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Boston over Cincinnati 3 teams today have no pitchers listed as of 10:00 am EST |
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| 06-22-2024, 02:04 PM | #43 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Holly crap 0-4 yesterday, in a 1-8 slump, picking the same way it was working. Haven't even looked at today's games yet. |
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| 06-22-2024, 03:50 PM | #44 |
thaskalos Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 28,785 | Quote: Originally Posted by Inner Dirt Holly crap 0-4 yesterday, in a 1-8 slump, picking the same way it was working. Haven't even looked at today's games yet. You've posted 9 picks and they have all been favorites...and most of them were in the (-150) - (-185) range. That strategy never works. You can't consistently back heavy favorites and hope to survive. __________________ |
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| 06-22-2024, 04:06 PM | #45 |
Inner Dirt Registered User Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Beaverdam Virginia Posts: 13,355 | Quote: Originally Posted by thaskalos You've posted 9 picks and they have all been favorites...and most of them were in the (-150) - (-185) range. That strategy never works. You can't consistently back heavy favorites and hope to survive. It worked for a while, maybe that was just beginners luck. My season bets are even turning sour. More chalk, mind you I am a major novice just trying to figure things out. I may try waiting for some underdogs most the teams that are under dogs that have a strong starting pitch edge are facing teams that hit so much better than they do. Phillies-Red Sox parlay +153 Guardians-Dodgers parlay +115 Last edited by Inner Dirt; 06-22-2024 at 04:11 PM. |
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